Achieving the Millennium Development Goals (Studies in by M. McGillivray

By M. McGillivray

This e-book provides analytical insights into if and the way the targets followed by way of the foreign group usually are achieved. A key characteristic of the research is the popularity that almost all of the MDG ambitions are endogenously comparable. those inter-dependencies are an important not just in interpreting the MDGs, but in addition devising concepts.

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Example text

The latter two approaches use differential elasticities to capture the greater poverty-reducing effect of growth in low-inequality settings. Rural–urban rates are based on countryspecific estimates of the rural–urban differential. Specific details of the projections are as follows: • Income poverty is modelled as a function of income growth alone, • • • • with the elasticity varying according the level of initial inequality. No allowance is made for the fact that the elasticity also changes over time; while this would be a more realistic approach, too little information is available to make such estimates in a sufficiently informed manner.

We discuss briefly the basis for making such projections and then examine the findings for the major MDG targets: income poverty, mortality, education, nutrition and HIV/AIDS. Approaches to making projections1 Projections may vary because of differences in assumptions regarding (i) determinants of the outcome of interest, (ii) model parameters or (iii) future values of the determinants. The simplest models, and by far the most common approach, take time as the only determinant – that is, the future is forecast based on historical trends, an approach called here naïve projections.

If a $US2 a day poverty line is used then South Asia will continue to have the bulk of the world’s income-poor in 2015 (46 per cent), followed by SSA (31 per cent). 2) are based on our own income poverty estimates. The total number of poor in 2015 (736 million) sits well within the range of earlier World Bank estimates, though it is higher than their current projection. The headcount ratio is highest in West and East Africa. Central Africa appears better off than Central and South America but it should be recalled that most of the African countries do not have data, especially those countries affected by conflict, where poverty will be high.

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